If we lose jobs, the size of the pie gets smaller, so costs get larger relative to the size of the smaller pie!
Will we lose jobs?
Every analyst thinks so, though the estimates are different. Politicians try to obscure this and/or minimize or exaggerate it. So we need to go with fact-based, reasoning-based decisionmaking
BOTTOMLINE
5 million jobs lost by 2019 (key cause: employer mandate)
Effect of employer cost: Reduced hiring
More jobs shipped overseas
Adverse effect on minimum wage earners
Adverse effect on minority businesses
People will leave the workforce, lowering economy even more
Doctors will leave and fewer will become doctors, with negative effects on healthcare
Unemployment will exacerbate problem of uninsureds!
Suggestion: Shift to personal responsibility model, as in RomneyCare and stop employer mandate.
____________________________________________________________________
EFFECTS ON THE COSTS OF GOODS
Obamacare is going to force many small businesses out of business. The ones that do survive face a huge mountain of new taxes--which of course will force up the cost of everything you buy.
REDUCED HIRING
The National Federation of Independent Business s forecast 1.6 million net jobs lost, 1 million of them vanishing from small businesses. It also projects GDP shriveling by $200 billion.
“A payroll tax is particularly regressive because employers pay it regardless of whether or not their business is profitable.”
Researchers recently consulted Romer’s academic forecasting model. By 2019, it concluded, Obamacare’s taxes would unplug 5.5 million jobs. [Christina Romer was a key economic adviser to Obama.]
Ship more jobs overseas
Additional costs will cause more offshoring of jobs, as overseas sources will have more "comparative advantage" (i.e. it costs less to produce the same item, which will also benefit Americans as they can buy goods for a lower price, in terms of time spent earning wages). .
Effect on minimum wage earners
CBO predicts, “such a change would tend to reduce the hiring of workers at or near the minimum wage.” CBO also warns wage-earners to await smaller paychecks. “Employers would be expected to pass the costs of such fees on to workers in the form of lower wages than would otherwise be paid -- just as the costs paid by employers for health insurance are generally passed on to workers.”
Effect on minority owned businesses
minority-owned businesses are currently less likely to provide employee health insurance…Hence, minorities are the most likely group of small business owners to be adversely affected by an employer mandate.”
LEAVING WORKFORCE
Testifying today before the House Budget Committee, Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Director Doug Elmendorf confirmed that Obamacare is expected to reduce the number of jobs in the labor market by an estimated 800,000.
The CBO is essentially saying that some people who are now in the work force because they need health insurance would decide to stop working because the health care law guaranteed they would have access to health care. Moreover, the argument could go, this would hurt the nation's budget because 800,000 fewer people will pay taxes on their earnings. [When we hurt the nation's budget and overall GDP that has an effect of more job losses.]
EFFECT ON DOCTORS; EFFECT ON CARE
trend for doctors to opt out of government programs
The combination of an increase in medical demand and a decrease in medical supply will drive up costs
With a developing doctor shortage, and increased costs of medical care, insurance companies will be under pressure to slash costs elsewhere. Insurers have already started signing up overseas hospitals in an attempt to increase supply of medical providers.
Deloitte, in 2008, estimated that between $228 billion, and $599.5 billion annually will be lost from the US medical economy by 2017. That will mean millions of lucrative medical jobs permanently lost,.
driving a move towards less costly nurse practitioners, and physician assistants rather than medical doctors to provide care. [The latter, if properly managed, is a good idea, though.]
OFFSETTING EFFECTS CAUSING MORE UNINSURED
Everything has its tradeoffs - and those must be considered and evaluated for each decision. (This is another reason to start the era of expert management, which will happen if we elect Romney.)
Unemployment increases the very same uninsured population who Obama says he wants to help. ObamaCare would eradicate jobs, which exacerbates the uninsured condition it aims to correct. (Then this quote adds an opinion: "That’s how the federal dog chases its tail, with ever more dizzying speed.")
